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From the Huffington Post -- Sicily Shipwreck:
Dozens Of African Migrants Die Off Coast Of Lampedusa,
By NICOLE WINFIELD
ROME -- ROME (AP) — It was the third ship of the night to head toward
the tiny Italian island of Lampedusa packed to the brim with migrants
seeking a better life in Europe. The first, filled with Syrians, arrived
about 10 p.m. The second, carrying Eritreans, slipped in at 2 a.m.
The third never reached the shore.
At least 114 people died and scores more were missing late Thursday
after a crowded fishing boat carrying African migrants from Tripoli
caught fire, flipped over and sank, Italian officials said.
In the dark of night, hundreds of men, women and children who didn't
know how to swim were flung into the sea about a half-mile from
Lampedusa. Between 450 and 500 people were believed to be on board;
health commissioner Antonio Candela said only 159 were rescued.
Probably at least 200 or 300 drowned.
The Huff Post story reads like the tragedy must have
happened in the early morning hours of Thursday, Oct 3. Hans Wendt
supplied more precise timing, though it is still approximate: 0500 to
0600 Central European time (0400 to 0500 UTC). The GCP event
was set for 6 hours beginning at 0400 UTC.
The result is Chisquare
21737.790 on 21601 df, for p = 0.255 and Z = 0.660.
It is important to keep in mind that we have only a tiny
statistical effect, so that it is always hard to distinguish
signal from noise. This means that every "success" might be
largely driven by chance, and every "null" might include a real
signal overwhelmed by noise. In the long run, a real effect can
be identified only by patiently accumulating replications of
similar analyses.
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