Current Results

Elections in India

This set of graphs shows the results corresponding to a prediction made by Kishor, of Bangalore, India, on 16 Sept 1999 concerning Indian elections: "Most probably the results start on 6th afternoon. The better time is 5.00 PM to 10.PM IST (Indian Standard Time) on 6th and 7th of Oct '99." This will be treated as an informal prediction, because the Indian elections are not expected garner the worldwide attention of a GCP global event, because the world population is not, generally speaking, much aware of locally important political activities. Exploratory analysis has been done (as planned) on both local and global levels, with 15 min blocks. The predicted times correspond to 11:30 to 16:30 UTC on the 6th and 7th of October.

The following figures show the results, which give striking indications of the subtlety of possible effects, and underscore the curious difficulties we face in grasping the implications of distance and relevance (cognitive distance) as potential contributors to the anomalous effects. As the graphs show, the single operating Indian Egg, number 114, had a highly significant response on the 7th, but none on the 6th. At the same time, the global response was more interesting (albeit not significant) on the 6th. The overall Chisquare for the two days, all Eggs, is 889.1, 880 df, p = 0.410, while the combined Chisquare for both days for the Chennai Egg is 60.1, 40 df, p = 0.021. While it remains to be seen if this pattern is robust, the suggestion is that there may be a stronger response from cognitively or spatially local Eggs.

Indian Elections, All Eggs, 6th

Indian Elections, Chennai, 6th

Indian Elections, All Eggs, 7th

Indian Elections, Chennai, 7th

(November, 1999, RDN, Figures by George deBeaumont).

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