Queensday, 2009

This is an exploratory analysis done by request on January 15 2010 for an event that took place in April 2009. Apparently a berserker attempted to crash his car into the open bus carrying the Dutch royal family in a parade on Queensday. Here is a description from web reports:

Five people (other reports say eight) were killed and more than a dozen wounded on Thursday, "Queensday" , when a driver hurtled his car into a crowd at a parade in the town Apeldoorn, the Netherlands, narrowly missing an open bus carrying Queen Beatrix and members of the Royal Family.

Dutch officials said the man had "acted deliberately" but they ruled out links with a terrorist group. "The driver is suspected of trying to attack the royal family," a spokesperson for the Dutch police said, not giving additional details as to a possible motive.

Koninginnedag or Queen's Day is a national holiday in the Netherlands, the Netherlands Antilles, and Aruba on 30 April or on 29 April if the 30th is a Sunday. Queen's Day celebrates the birthday of the Queen of the Netherlands and is supposed to be a day of national unity and "togetherness" (Dutch: saamhorigheid). The tradition started on 31 August 1885 on the birthday of Princess Wilhelmina, later Queen Wilhelmina. Since 1949, after the ascension of Queen Juliana, Queen's Day is Queen Juliana's birthday on 30 April. Although Queen Beatrix's birthday is on 31 January, she officially celebrates her birthday on 30 April.

Queen's Day is known for its "freemarket" (Dutch: vrijmarkt) all over the country, where everybody is allowed to sell things in the streets. Other activities during Queen's Day are children's games, individual musical performances, and music concerts. The night before Queen's Day is celebrated too in some cities, and this is called Queen's Night (Dutch: Koninginnenacht). The largest celebration of Queen's Day is in Amsterdam, Queen's Night in The Hague and Queen's Dance (Dutch: Koninginnedans) in Rotterdam. During the celebrations as reference to the colours of the House of Orange-Nassau, people dress in the colour orange, which is sometimes called "orange craze" (Dutch: oranjegekte).

This analysis was done in response to an email request from a colleague in the Netherlands made 14 Jan 2010. It is an exploration, not part of the formal series.

Last year there was an attack on our royal family. A number of the public died including the attacker. This was broadcast live on TV and created a shock in the Netherlands. I don't think it did much in other countries. The date was April 30 and the time was 12:00 local time.

The RNG's which were closest are 1000 and 2028.

Is it possible to run a formal analysis for me? For the whole network and for the closest rng's?

I used previous events of generally similar type as a model. They have mostly been 3 or 4 hours in length, and I specified 4 hours for the Queensday event, from 12 noon to 4pm local (10:00 to 14:00 UTC). The first graph shows this period, and the second graph show the context of the full UTC day. The data from the whole network shows reduced network variance for much of the day, and for the 4-hour period, this is also the case. The departure from expectation corresponds to Z = -2.285. Neither of the individual eggs shows a strong departure.

Queensday, 2009

Results from individual events should not be overinterpreted (see note below) but the departure from expectation for the network is strong enough to be nominally significant. It is more interesting, however, to note that of 9 generally similar events, 5 have a substantial negative deviation, like this one.

Queensday, 2009

It is important to keep in mind that we have only a tiny statistical effect, so that it is always hard to distinguish signal from noise. This means that every "success" might be largely driven by chance, and every "null" might include a real signal overwhelmed by noise. In the long run, a real effect can be identified only by patiently accumulating replications of similar analyses.

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